Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
